As part of the activities celebrating its 20th anniversary, the Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Association invited Professor Yao Yang, Director of China Center for Economic Research (CCER) and Associate Dean of National School of Development (NSD) at Peking University, to lecture on NPC & CPPCC 2011 at the training center of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. Professor Yao made in-depth analysis on Chinese economy from different approaches of international environment, mainland social structure, livelihood, and finance, and answered the questions from the audience after the lecture.
Focusing on the topic of economic growth prospect, structural imbalance and corresponding coping measures, Professor Yao compared the world leading economies of China, US, and Asian countries, pointed out the scale and cost advantages that mainland China enjoys as well as the increasing international demand, and predicted that the ratio of export and GDP in China would drop to 20% by 2015 while the export would reach 2,400 billion US dollars.
By explaining the salary increase among migrant workers is faster than that of urban workers and there are still a large amount of labors at countryside, Professor Yao concluded that the salary rise did not necessarily mean the mainland had reached Lewis Turning Point. But he also admitted that the lagging financial system and price distortion for main factors had resulted in uneven inflation and would affect future development in mainland. According to the 12th Five-Year Plan, the government will make structural adjustments and promote livelihood, but he said no big changes would occur to economic structure.